English

Localized conformal model selection

Methodology 2026-02-24 v1

Abstract

We propose a localized conformal model selection framework that integrates local adaptivity with post-selection validity for distribution-free prediction. By performing model selection symmetrically across calibration points using upper and lower surrogate intervals, we construct a data-dependent safe index set that contains the oracle model and preserves exchangeability. The resulting ensemble procedure retains exact finite-sample marginal coverage while adapting to spatial heterogeneity and model complexity. Simulations demonstrate substantial reductions in interval length compared to the best fixed model, especially in heterogeneous and low-noise settings.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.19284,
  title  = {Localized conformal model selection},
  author = {Yuhao Wang and Tengyao Wang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.19284},
  year   = {2026}
}

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8 pages, 1 figure