Light-Cone Scaling of In-Circuit Noise in Randomized Measurements

Randomized measurements provide an efficient way to extract physical properties of an unknown quantum state from limited data. On near-term hardware, gate and readout errors bias the reconstructed observables. Here we develop a microscopic description of this bias for locally scrambled shallow circuits. Independent local twirling reduces local implementation noise to stochastic Pauli damping, and a noise event contributes only when it overlaps the Heisenberg evolution of the measured Pauli operator. This gives an activated path-average formula for the noisy Pauli coefficient. In one-dimensional shallow circuits, the activated noise volume grows linearly with the size of a contiguous observable, leading to an exponential damping ratio. We verify this scaling for two-qubit random Clifford and locally scrambled iSWAP circuits with two-qubit Pauli noise, including spatial fluctuations and temporal drift. The scaling supports a small-string calibration protocol that predicts larger string observables without learning the full noisy measurement channel. Our result relates the noise bias of shallow-shadow protocols directly to operator-evolving dynamics.