Less Experts, Faster Decoding: Cost-Aware Speculative Decoding for Mixture-of-Experts

Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models have become an important approach for scaling Large Language Models (LLMs), but their inference efficiency depends strongly on expert activation patterns. Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive generation by verifying multiple draft tokens in parallel, yet existing draft selection strategies primarily optimize acceptance likelihood. In large-scale MoE models, however, selecting draft tokens also determines the union of experts activated during verification. We observe that confidence-driven SD can introduce \textit{expert scattering}: high-probability draft tokens may route to disjoint experts, increasing expert-weight memory traffic and reducing the speedup from speculation. Motivated by this observation, we revisit draft-tree selection under the non-uniform memory-cost structure of MoE inference. We propose \textsc{EcoSpec}, a cost-aware speculative decoding framework that incorporates predicted marginal expert activation cost into draft selection. With a lightweight expert predictor and a dynamic expert buffer, \textsc{EcoSpec} favors draft paths that preserve high acceptance likelihood while reusing experts already covered by the current verification set, without modifying the target-model verification rule. We evaluate \textsc{EcoSpec} on three large-scale MoE models, including DeepSeek-V3.1 (671B), Qwen3-235B-A22B, and GPT-OSS-120B, across reasoning, coding, question-answering, and dialogue benchmarks. \textsc{EcoSpec} consistently reduces active expert footprints and improves end-to-end decoding speed, achieving up to $1.62\times$ speedup. These results show that accounting for expert activation cost is important for efficient speculative decoding in large-scale MoE models.