In this work, we model and simulate the performance of a quantum key distribution (QKD) downlink from a low earth orbit (LEO) small satellite to an optical ground station (OGS), as integral part of the concept and preliminary design phase of the QuantSat-PT mission. By modelling and simulating in detail downlink transmission channel effects, with emphasis on turbulent and atmospheric losses for BB84 and E91 protocols, we find a consistent set of values for the performance envelope that resolves ambiguities of mission experimental data that had been reported previous to this work. We obtain for the 4-state BB84 protocol a sifted key rate and Quantum Bit Error Rate (QBER) of 32.1 kbit/s and 4%, respectively, for zenith at 750 km orbit. For the E91 protocol the Clauser, Horne, Shimony and Holt (CHSH) test was performed resulting in a correlation factor of S∈[−2.63±0.02,−1.91±0.03] for the mission. The consistency of these results with the state of the art simulators and its relevance on experimental satellite based QKD is discussed.