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Large deviation rates for supercritical multitype branching processes with immigration

Probability 2025-08-22 v1

Abstract

Let {Xn}n0\{X_n\}_{n\geq0} be a pp-type (p2p\geq2) supercritical branching process with immigration and mean matrix MM. Suppose that MM is positively regular and ρ\rho is the maximal eigenvalue of MM with the corresponding left and right eigenvectors v\boldsymbol{v} and u\boldsymbol{u}. Let ρ>1\rho>1 and Yn=ρn[uXnρn+11ρ1(uλ)]Y_n=\rho^{-n}\Big[\boldsymbol{u}\cdot X_n -\frac{\rho^{n+1}-1}{\rho-1}( \boldsymbol{u}\cdot \boldsymbol{\lambda})\Big], where the vector λ\boldsymbol{\lambda} denotes the mean immigration rate. In this paper, we will show that YnY_n is a martingale and converges to a r.v.r.v. YY as nn\rightarrow\infty. We study the rates of convergence to 00 as nn\rightarrow\infty of Pi(lXn+11Xnl(XnM)1Xn>ε),Pi(lXn1Xnlv1v>ε),P(YnY>ε) P_i\Big(\Big|\frac{\boldsymbol{l}\cdot X_{n+1}}{\textbf{1}\cdot X_n}-\frac{\boldsymbol{l}\cdot(X_nM)}{\textbf{1}\cdot X_n}\Big|>\varepsilon\Big),P_i\Big(\Big|\frac{\boldsymbol{l}\cdot X_n}{\textbf{1}\cdot X_n}-\frac{\boldsymbol{l}\cdot\boldsymbol{v}}{\textbf{1}\cdot \boldsymbol{v} }\Big|>\varepsilon\Big),P\Big(\Big|Y_n-Y\Big|>\varepsilon\Big) for any ε>0,i=1,,p\varepsilon>0, i=1,\cdots,p, 1=(1,,1)\textbf{1}=(1,\cdots,1) and lRp,\boldsymbol{l}\in\mathbb{R}^p, the pp-dimensional Euclidean space. It is shown that under certain moment conditions, the first two decay geometrically, while conditionally on the event YαY\geq\alpha (α>0)(\alpha>0) supergeometrically. The decay rate of the last probability is always supergeometric under a finite moment generating function assumption.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2508.15428,
  title  = {Large deviation rates for supercritical multitype branching processes with immigration},
  author = {Liuyan Li and Junping Li},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.15428},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T04:59:50.198Z