La falacia del empate t\'ecnico electoral
Applications
2018-01-30 v2
Abstract
It is argued that the concept of "technical tie" in electoral polls and quick counts has no probabilistic basis, and that instead the uncertainty associated with these statistical exercises should be expressed in terms of a probability of victory of the leading candidate. ----- Se argumenta que el concepto de "empate t\'ecnico" en encuestas y conteos r\'apidos electorales no tiene fundamento probabil\'istico, y que en su lugar la incertidumbre asociada a dichos ejercicios estad\'isticos debiera expresarse en t\'erminos de una probabilidad de triunfo del candidato puntero.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1801.06757,
title = {La falacia del empate t\'ecnico electoral},
author = {Arturo Erdely},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1801.06757},
year = {2018}
}
Comments
22 pages, 8 figures, in Spanish