Iterated monodromy groups of rational functions and periodic points over finite fields

Let $q$ be a prime power and $\phi$ a rational function with coefficients in a finite field $\mathbb{F}_q$. For $n \geq 1$, each element of $\mathbb{P}^1(\F_{q^n})$ is either periodic or strictly preperiodic under iteration of $\phi$. Denote by $a_n$ the proportion of periodic elements. Little is known about how $a_n$ changes as $n$ grows, unless $\phi$ is a power map or Chebyshev polynomial. We give the first results on this question for a wider class of rational functions: $a_n$ has lim inf $0$ when $q$ is odd and $\phi$ is quadratic and neither Latt\`es nor conjugate to a one-parameter family of exceptional maps. We also show that $a_n$ has limit $0$ when $\phi$ is a non-Chebyshev quadratic polynomial with strictly preperiodic finite critical point and $q$ is an odd square. Our methods yield additional results on periodic points for reductions of post-critically finite (PCF) rational functions defined over number fields. The difficulty of understanding $a_n$ in general is that $\mathbb{P}^1(\F_{q^n})$ is a finite set with no ambient geometry. In fact, $\phi$ can be lifted to a PCF rational map on the Riemann sphere, where we show that $a_n$ is given by counting elements of the iterated monodromy group (IMG) that act with fixed points at all levels of the tree of preimages. Using a martingale convergence theorem, we translate the problem to determining whether certain IMG elements exist. This in turn can be decisively addressed using the expansion of PCF rational maps in the orbifold metric.