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Isotonic Recalibration under a Low Signal-to-Noise Ratio

Methodology 2023-01-10 v1 Machine Learning Statistics Theory Computational Finance Statistical Finance Machine Learning Statistics Theory

Abstract

Insurance pricing systems should fulfill the auto-calibration property to ensure that there is no systematic cross-financing between different price cohorts. Often, regression models are not auto-calibrated. We propose to apply isotonic recalibration to a given regression model to ensure auto-calibration. Our main result proves that under a low signal-to-noise ratio, this isotonic recalibration step leads to explainable pricing systems because the resulting isotonically recalibrated regression functions have a low complexity.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2301.02692,
  title  = {Isotonic Recalibration under a Low Signal-to-Noise Ratio},
  author = {Mario V. Wüthrich and Johanna Ziegel},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.02692},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

21 pages, 9 figures