Interpretation of the OGLE Q2237+0305 microlensing light-curve

The four bright images of the gravitationally lensed quasar Q2237+0305 are being monitored from the ground (eg. OGLE collaboration, Apache Point Observatory) in the hope of observing a high magnification event (HME). Over the past three seasons (1997-1999) the OGLE collaboration has produced microlensing light-curves with unprecedented coverage. These demonstrate smooth, independent (therefore microlensing) variability between the images (Wozniak et al. 2000a,b; OGLE web page). We have retrospectively compared probability functions for high-magnification event parameters with several observed light-curve features. We conclude that the 1999 image C peak was due to the source having passed outside of a cusp rather than to a caustic crossing. In addition, we find that the image C light-curve shows evidence for a caustic crossing between the 1997 and 1998 observing seasons involving the appearance of new critical images. Our models predict that the next image C event is most likely to arrive 500 days following the 1999 peak, but with a large uncertainty (100-2000 days). Finally, given the image A light-curve derivative at the end of the 1999 observing season, our modelling suggests that a caustic crossing will occur between the 1999 and 2000 observing seasons, implying a minimum for the image A light-curve ~1-1.5 magnitudes fainter than the November 1999 level.