English

Infection fronts in randomly varying transmission-rate media

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks 2024-09-18 v2 Biological Physics

Abstract

We numerically investigate the geometry and transport properties of infection fronts within the spatial SIR model in two dimensions. The model incorporates short-range correlated quenched random transmission rates. Our findings reveal that the critical average transmission rate for the steady-state propagation of the infection is overestimated by the naive mean-field homogenization. Furthermore, we observe that the velocity, profile, and harmfulness of the fronts, given a specific average transmission, are sensitive to the details of randomness. In particular, we find that the harmfulness of the front is larger the more uniform the transmission-rate is, suggesting potential optimization in vaccination strategies under constraints like fixed average-transmission-rates or limited vaccine resources. The large-scale geometry of the advancing fronts presents nevertheless robust universal features and, for a statistically isotropic and short-range correlated disorder, we get a roughness exponent α0.42±0.10\alpha\approx 0.42 \pm 0.10 and a dynamical exponent z1.6±0.10z\approx 1.6 \pm 0.10, which are roughly compatible with the one-dimensional Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. We find that the KPZ term and the disorder-induced effective noise are present and have a kinematic origin.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2406.01822,
  title  = {Infection fronts in randomly varying transmission-rate media},
  author = {Renzo Zagarra and Karina Laneri and Alejandro B. Kolton},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.01822},
  year   = {2024}
}

Comments

10 pages, 8 figures