Inequality of opportunity under current China's license plate policy
Abstract
Measuring inequality of opportunities has long been a challenging and open problem, primarily due to the limitations associated with individual-level data. In this study, we utilize data obtained from vehicle license plates in a comprehensive survey (17258 vehicles from 6 major cities in China) to evaluate the inequality of opportunities in the country. In our context, we define inequality of opportunity as the scenario where relatively expensive vehicles have a higher likelihood of being paired with license plates featuring 'Lucky Numbers'. To quantify this, we propose a lucky-number-based opportunity Gini coefficient. Through the calculation of the opportunity Gini coefficient, we observe a significant and positive correlation between opportunity inequality and income inequality. Particularly noteworthy is our finding that the advancement of technology, exemplified by the widespread adoption of new energy vehicles, can substantially reduce the inequality of opportunity. Taking incorporation of a random lottery process before acquiring a motor vehicle in Beijing and Shanghai as a natural experiment, our empirical results support the argument that, in terms of equality, employing random drawing is a fair and equitable approach for allocating scarce resources.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2501.01298,
title = {Inequality of opportunity under current China's license plate policy},
author = {Nina Xiaochun Sun and Zaifang He and Yi Pang},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2501.01298},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
Licence plate numbers in other major cities have not been covered (Guangzhou, Shenzhen), and hence new data still needs to be supplemented. Single GINI coefficient is insufficient to support conclusions in terms of inequality of opportunity, and we are still processing other methods. Therefore, this work is incomplete, and has been withdrawn by authors