English

Impact of the SNe Ia Magnitude Transition at 20 Mpc on Cosmological Parameter Estimation

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics 2026-04-15 v1 General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology

Abstract

We investigate the impact of a late-time transition in the standardized absolute magnitude MM on the best-fit values of cosmological parameters using the Pantheon+ dataset. Extending previous analyses which focused on flat Λ\LambdaCDM, we examine this transition within flat Λ\LambdaCDM, wCDM, and CPL cosmologies, as well as a model-independent cosmographic expansion, employing both frequentist (χ2\chi^2 minimization with \textit{AIC}/\textit{BIC}) and Bayesian (MCMC and Nested Sampling) inference frameworks. We confirm that the data consistently favor a step in absolute magnitude of ΔM0.19 mag\Delta M \simeq 0.19~\mathrm{mag} at a characteristic distance of dcrit20 Mpcd_{\mathrm{crit}} \approx 20~\mathrm{Mpc}. The inclusion of this transition leads to a statistically significant improvement in the quality of fit and has a distinct impact on parameter estimation: it induces a systematic increase in the inferred Hubble constant of approximately 2%2\% across all tested models. In contrast, we find that the dynamical parameters governing the background expansion, including the matter density Ωm\Omega_m and the dark energy equation of state (w0,waw_0, w_a), remain stable and largely unaffected. These results indicate that the 20 Mpc20~\mathrm{Mpc} feature acts primarily as a low-redshift calibration shift rather than a modification of the late-time expansion history.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2604.12587,
  title  = {Impact of the SNe Ia Magnitude Transition at 20 Mpc on Cosmological Parameter Estimation},
  author = {Leandros Perivolaropoulos and Chrisostomos-Panagiotis Stamou},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.12587},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

21 pages, 11 figures. Accepted in Phys. Rev. D to appear. The numerical analysis files for the reproduction of the figures are available at a GitHub repository (link in the paper)