English

Impact of Bayesian prior on the characterization of binary black hole coalescences

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology 2018-07-19 v3 High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena

Abstract

In a regime where data are only mildly informative, prior choices can play a significant role in Bayesian statistical inference, potentially affecting the inferred physics. We show this is indeed the case for some of the parameters inferred from current gravitational-wave measurements of binary black hole coalescences. We reanalyze the first detections performed by the twin LIGO interferometers using alternative (and astrophysically motivated) prior assumptions. We find different prior distributions can introduce deviations in the resulting posteriors that impact the physical interpretation of these systems. For instance, (i) limits on the 90%90\% credible interval on the effective black hole spin χeff\chi_{\rm eff} are subject to variations of 10%\sim 10\% if a prior with black hole spins mostly aligned to the binary's angular momentum is considered instead of the standard choice of isotropic spin directions, and (ii) under priors motivated by the initial stellar mass function, we infer tighter constraints on the black hole masses, and in particular, we find no support for any of the inferred masses within the putative mass gap M5MM \lesssim 5 M_\odot.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1707.04637,
  title  = {Impact of Bayesian prior on the characterization of binary black hole coalescences},
  author = {Salvatore Vitale and Davide Gerosa and Carl-Johan Haster and Katerina Chatziioannou and Aaron Zimmerman},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1707.04637},
  year   = {2018}
}

Comments

6 Pages, 2 Figures; see also 1712.06635 Data release at https://github.com/vitale82/GWpriors