English

Hydrodynamics of $N$-urn susceptible-infected-removed epidemics

Probability 2022-05-03 v2

Abstract

In this paper we are concerned with NN-urn susceptible-infected-removed epidemics, where each urn is in one of three states, namely `susceptible', `infected' and `removed'. We assume that recovery rates of infected urns and infection rates between infected and susceptible urns are all coordinate-dependent. We show that the hydrodynamic limit of our model is driven by a deterministic (C[0,1])(C[0, 1])^\prime-valued process with density which is the solution to a nonlinear C[0,1]C[0, 1]-valued ordinary differential equation consistent with a mean-field analysis. We further show that the fluctuation of our process is driven by a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. A key step in proofs of above main results is to show that sates of different urns are approximately independent as N+N\rightarrow+\infty.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2204.13234,
  title  = {Hydrodynamics of $N$-urn susceptible-infected-removed epidemics},
  author = {Xiaofeng Xue},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2204.13234},
  year   = {2022}
}