English

How is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?

Applications 2022-07-04 v2 Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Quantitative Methods

Abstract

How do we know how much we know? Quantifying uncertainty associated with our modelling work is the only way we can answer how much we know about any phenomenon. With quantitative science now highly influential in the public sphere and the results from models translating into action, we must support our conclusions with sufficient rigour to produce useful, reproducible results. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to false conclusions with real world impacts. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, uncertainty consideration is incomplete both within and across scientific fields. We take a unique interdisciplinary approach and conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and social sciences. Our results show no single field is achieving complete consideration of model uncertainties, but together we can fill the gaps. We propose opportunities to improve the quantification of uncertainty through use of a source framework for uncertainty consideration, model type specific guidelines, improved presentation, and shared best practice. We also identify shared outstanding challenges (uncertainty in input data, balancing trade-offs, error propagation, and defining how much uncertainty is required). Finally, we make nine concrete recommendations for current practice (following good practice guidelines and an uncertainty checklist, presenting uncertainty numerically, and propagating model-related uncertainty into conclusions), future research priorities (uncertainty in input data, quantifying uncertainty in complex models, and the importance of missing uncertainty in different contexts), and general research standards across the sciences (transparency about study limitations and dedicated uncertainty sections of manuscripts).

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2206.12179,
  title  = {How is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?},
  author = {Emily G. Simmonds and Kwaku Peprah Adjei and Christoffer Wold Andersen and Janne Cathrin Hetle Aspheim and Claudia Battistin and Nicola Bulso and Hannah Christensen and Benjamin Cretois and Ryan Cubero and Ivan A. Davidovich and Lisa Dickel and Benjamin Dunn and Etienne Dunn-Sigouin and Karin Dyrstad and Sigurd Einum and Donata Giglio and Haakon Gjerlow and Amelie Godefroidt and Ricardo Gonzalez-Gil and Soledad Gonzalo Cogno and Fabian Grosse and Paul Halloran and Mari F. Jensen and John James Kennedy and Peter Egge Langsaether and Jack H. Laverick and Debora Lederberger and Camille Li and Elizabeth Mandeville and Caitlin Mandeville and Espen Moe and Tobias Navarro Schroder and David Nunan and Jorge Sicacha Parada and Melanie Rae Simpson and Emma Sofie Skarstein and Clemens Spensberger and Richard Stevens and Aneesh Subramanian and Lea Svendsen and Ole Magnus Theisen and Connor Watret and Robert B. OHara},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.12179},
  year   = {2022}
}

Comments

40 Pages (including supporting information), 3 Figures, 2 Boxes, 1 Table