English

How fragile are information cascades?

Probability 2018-02-22 v2 Computer Science and Game Theory Social and Information Networks Econometrics

Abstract

It is well known that sequential decision making may lead to information cascades. That is, when agents make decisions based on their private information, as well as observing the actions of those before them, then it might be rational to ignore their private signal and imitate the action of previous individuals. If the individuals are choosing between a right and a wrong state, and the initial actions are wrong, then the whole cascade will be wrong. This issue is due to the fact that cascades can be based on very little information. We show that if agents occasionally disregard the actions of others and base their action only on their private information, then wrong cascades can be avoided. Moreover, we study the optimal asymptotic rate at which the error probability at time tt can go to zero. The optimal policy is for the player at time tt to follow their private information with probability pt=c/tp_{t} = c/t, leading to a learning rate of c/tc'/t, where the constants cc and cc' are explicit.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1711.04024,
  title  = {How fragile are information cascades?},
  author = {Yuval Peres and Miklos Z. Racz and Allan Sly and Izabella Stuhl},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1711.04024},
  year   = {2018}
}

Comments

19 pages; v2: minor changes

R2 v1 2026-06-22T22:42:41.297Z