English

How fast can you find a good hypothesis?

Data Structures and Algorithms 2025-11-12 v2 Machine Learning

Abstract

In the hypothesis selection problem, we are given sample and query access to finite set of candidate distributions (hypotheses), H={H1,,Hn}\mathcal{H} = \{H_1, \ldots, H_n\}, and samples from an unknown distribution PP, both over a domain X\mathcal{X}. The goal is to output a distribution QQ whose distance to PP is comparable to that of the nearest hypothesis in H\mathcal{H}. Specifically, if the minimum distance is OPT\mathsf{OPT}, we aim to output QQ such that, with probability at least 1δ1-\delta, its total variation distance to PP is at most COPT+εC \cdot \mathsf{OPT} + \varepsilon. The optimal approximation for proper algorithms (where QHQ \in \mathcal{H}) is C=3C=3 using Θ(log(n/δ)/ε2)\Theta(\log(n/\delta)/\varepsilon^2) samples from PP and for improper algorithms (where QQ is not necessarily in H\mathcal{H}) is C=2C=2 using Θ~(log(n/δ)/ε2)\tilde{\Theta}(\log(n/\delta)/\varepsilon^2) samples from PP. In the improper setting, the algorithm achieving C=2C=2 [Bousquet, Braverman, Kol, Efremenko, Moran, FOCS 2021] runs in time which grows polynomially with X|\mathcal{X}| -- it does not run in finite time for real-valued distributions. A promising path towards improved runtime is to consider improper algorithms which output a mixture QQ of the hypotheses as such a distribution can be represented in nn words of memory. We show (1) a lower bound that no algorithm which outputs a mixture can achieve approximation better than C=32/nC = 3-2/n unless the number of samples is polynomial in X|\mathcal{X}|, as well as (2) an algorithm which runs in time poly(n)\text{poly}(n) and achieves the same approximation guarantee. In the proper setting, [Aliakbarpour, Bun, Smith, NeurIPS 2024] provided an algorithm with C=3C=3 running in O~(n/(δ3ε3))\tilde{O}(n/(\delta^3\varepsilon^3)) time. We improve this time complexity to O~(n/(δε2))\tilde{O}(n/(\delta \varepsilon^2)), significantly reducing the dependence on the confidence and error parameters.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2509.03734,
  title  = {How fast can you find a good hypothesis?},
  author = {Anders Aamand and Maryam Aliakbarpour and Justin Y. Chen and Sandeep Silwal},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.03734},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Abstract abridged to meet arxiv requirements

R2 v1 2026-07-01T05:20:05.196Z