How fast can you find a good hypothesis?
Abstract
In the hypothesis selection problem, we are given sample and query access to finite set of candidate distributions (hypotheses), , and samples from an unknown distribution , both over a domain . The goal is to output a distribution whose distance to is comparable to that of the nearest hypothesis in . Specifically, if the minimum distance is , we aim to output such that, with probability at least , its total variation distance to is at most . The optimal approximation for proper algorithms (where ) is using samples from and for improper algorithms (where is not necessarily in ) is using samples from . In the improper setting, the algorithm achieving [Bousquet, Braverman, Kol, Efremenko, Moran, FOCS 2021] runs in time which grows polynomially with -- it does not run in finite time for real-valued distributions. A promising path towards improved runtime is to consider improper algorithms which output a mixture of the hypotheses as such a distribution can be represented in words of memory. We show (1) a lower bound that no algorithm which outputs a mixture can achieve approximation better than unless the number of samples is polynomial in , as well as (2) an algorithm which runs in time and achieves the same approximation guarantee. In the proper setting, [Aliakbarpour, Bun, Smith, NeurIPS 2024] provided an algorithm with running in time. We improve this time complexity to , significantly reducing the dependence on the confidence and error parameters.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2509.03734,
title = {How fast can you find a good hypothesis?},
author = {Anders Aamand and Maryam Aliakbarpour and Justin Y. Chen and Sandeep Silwal},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.03734},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
Abstract abridged to meet arxiv requirements