English

How far are Extraterrestrial Life and Intelligence after Kepler ?

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics 2017-08-23 v1

Abstract

The Kepler mission has shown that a significant fraction of all stars may have an Earth-size habitable planet. A dramatic support was the recent detection of Proxima Centauri b. Using a Drake-equation like formalism I derive an equation for the abundance of biotic planets as a function of the relatively modest uncertainty in the astronomical data and of the (yet unknown) probability for the evolution of biotic life, Fb. I suggest that Fb may be estimated by future spectral observations of exoplanet biomarkers. It follows that if Fb is not very small, then a biotic planet may be expected within about 10 light years from Earth. Extending this analyses to advanced life, I derive expressions for the distance to putative civilizations in terms of two additional Drake parameters - the probability for evolution of a civilization, Fc, and its average longevity. Assuming "optimistic" values for the Drake parameters, (Fb~Fc~1), and a broadcasting duration of a few thousand years, the likely distance to the nearest civilizations detectable by SETI is of the order of a few thousand light years. Finally I calculate the distance and probability of detecting intelligent signals with present and future radio telescopes such as Arecibo and SKA and how it could constrain the Drake parameters.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1612.03844,
  title  = {How far are Extraterrestrial Life and Intelligence after Kepler ?},
  author = {Amri Wandel},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1612.03844},
  year   = {2017}
}

Comments

12 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Acta Astronautica; presented in the International Congress of Astronautics, Jerusalem (4.1.1), 2015. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1412.1302

R2 v1 2026-06-22T17:21:08.075Z