Higher-order interactions are increasingly recognized as a key component of ecological dynamics. However, we show that higher-order Lotka-Volterra dynamics can, in some scenarios, be accurately reproduced by effective pairwise models fitted to the same abundance time series. Consequently, higher-order interactions cannot, in general, be inferred from time-series data alone. We further identify a fundamental problem of mechanistic identifiability, whereby distinct interaction mechanisms generate nearly indistinguishable dynamics, potentially leading to accurate yet misleading ecological interpretations. Our results highlight the need to complement time-series data with additional ecological information to infer interaction structure reliably.
@article{arxiv.2605.06301,
title = {Higher-order interactions in ecology can be hidden in plain sight},
author = {Violeta Calleja-Solanas and Santiago Lamata-Otín and Carlos Gómez-Ambrosi and Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes and Sandro Meloni},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.06301},
year = {2026}
}