English

HGCN(O): A Self-Tuning GCN HyperModel Toolkit for Outcome Prediction in Event-Sequence Data

Machine Learning 2025-08-06 v2

Abstract

We propose HGCN(O), a self-tuning toolkit using Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) models for event sequence prediction. Featuring four GCN architectures (O-GCN, T-GCN, TP-GCN, TE-GCN) across the GCNConv and GraphConv layers, our toolkit integrates multiple graph representations of event sequences with different choices of node- and graph-level attributes and in temporal dependencies via edge weights, optimising prediction accuracy and stability for balanced and unbalanced datasets. Extensive experiments show that GCNConv models excel on unbalanced data, while all models perform consistently on balanced data. Experiments also confirm the superior performance of HGCN(O) over traditional approaches. Applications include Predictive Business Process Monitoring (PBPM), which predicts future events or states of a business process based on event logs.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2507.22524,
  title  = {HGCN(O): A Self-Tuning GCN HyperModel Toolkit for Outcome Prediction in Event-Sequence Data},
  author = {Fang Wang and Paolo Ceravolo and Ernesto Damiani},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.22524},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

15 pages, 2 figures, preprint submitted to Knowledge-Base Systems

R2 v1 2026-07-01T04:25:41.137Z