Forecasting systems in science must be accurate, physically consistent, and certifiably reliable. Most existing models address prediction, constraint enforcement, and verification separately, limiting scalability and interpretability. We introduce GeoCert, a geometric AI framework that unifies forecasting, physical reasoning, and formal verification within a single differentiable computation. GeoCert formulates forecasting as evolution along a hyperbolic manifold, where negative curvature induces contraction dynamics, intrinsic robustness, and logarithmic-time certification. A hierarchical constraint architecture separates universal physical laws from domain-specific dynamics, enabling certified generalization across energy, climate, finance, and transportation systems. GeoCert achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while reducing computational cost by 97.5% and maintaining better certification rates. By embedding verification into the geometry of learning, GeoCert transforms forecasting from empirical approximation to formally verified inference, offering a scalable foundation for trustworthy, reproducible, and physically grounded scientific AI.
@article{arxiv.2604.23474,
title = {GeoCert: Certified Geometric AI for Reliable Forecasting},
author = {Regina Zhang and Zongru Li and Honggang Wen and Xiaofeng Liu and Siu-Ming Yiu and Pietro Liò and Kwok-Yan Lam},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.23474},
year = {2026}
}