Gaffke's confidence interval for the mean of bounded data is inadmissible but asymptotically efficient
Abstract
Given observations , Gaffke (2005) defined and conjectured that it is a -value whenever the inputs are independent e-values. Recently, Vlassis and Thomas (2026) proved this conjecture. Inverting the tests for observations in gives the confidence interval studied by Learned-Miller and Thomas (2020), which reduces to Clopper--Pearson for Bernoulli data. We give a finite- and large-sample account of Gaffke's test and interval. First, for every and every elementary symmetric polynomial , so the Gaffke -value never larger than the SymPol -value of Ming et al. (2026). However, Gaffke's p-value is inadmissible. For , we construct a valid rule that is strictly smaller on mixed configurations and is the unique admissible rule that dominates . A neutral-face extension proves inadmissibility of for every . If one independent uniform random variable is allowed, there is an even simpler full-dimensional improvement: on the upper orthant, where , replace it by . The equal-tail Gaffke confidence interval is nevertheless first-order asymptotically efficient: for iid observations on with unknown variance , Our simulations also find that, among a variety of bounded-mean intervals considered, the Gaffke interval is the shortest, including comparisons with a recent empirical Berry--Esseen procedure having the same first-order Gaussian target.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2607.18661,
title = {Gaffke's confidence interval for the mean of bounded data is inadmissible but asymptotically efficient},
author = {Jiahao Ming and Aaditya Ramdas and Yi Shen and Ruodu Wang and Ian Waudby-Smith},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.18661},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
33 pages