Forecasting U.S. Textile Comparative Advantage Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models and Time Series Outlier Analysis
General Economics
2019-08-15 v1 Economics
Abstract
To establish an updated understanding of the U.S. textile and apparel (TAP) industrys competitive position within the global textile environment, trade data from UN-COMTRADE (1996-2016) was used to calculate the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index for 169 TAP categories at the four-digit Harmonized Schedule (HS) code level. Univariate time series using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models forecast short-term future performance of Revealed categories with export advantage. Accompanying outlier analysis examined permanent level shifts that might convey important information about policy changes, influential drivers and random events.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1908.04852,
title = {Forecasting U.S. Textile Comparative Advantage Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models and Time Series Outlier Analysis},
author = {Zahra Saki and Lori Rothenberg and Marguerite Moor and Ivan Kandilov and A. Blanton Godfrey},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1908.04852},
year = {2019}
}
Comments
11 pages, 1Figure and 9 tables