First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. IV. Variability, Morphology, and Black Hole Mass

In this paper we quantify the temporal variability and image morphology of the horizon-scale emission from Sgr A*, as observed by the EHT in 2017 April at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. We find that the Sgr A* data exhibit variability that exceeds what can be explained by the uncertainties in the data or by the effects of interstellar scattering. The magnitude of this variability can be a substantial fraction of the correlated flux density, reaching $\sim$100\% on some baselines. Through an exploration of simple geometric source models, we demonstrate that ring-like morphologies provide better fits to the Sgr A* data than do other morphologies with comparable complexity. We develop two strategies for fitting static geometric ring models to the time-variable Sgr A* data; one strategy fits models to short segments of data over which the source is static and averages these independent fits, while the other fits models to the full dataset using a parametric model for the structural variability power spectrum around the average source structure. Both geometric modeling and image-domain feature extraction techniques determine the ring diameter to be $51.8 \pm 2.3$ $\mu$as (68\% credible intervals), with the ring thickness constrained to have an FWHM between $\sim$30\% and 50\% of the ring diameter. To bring the diameter measurements to a common physical scale, we calibrate them using synthetic data generated from GRMHD simulations. This calibration constrains the angular size of the gravitational radius to be $4.8_{-0.7}^{+1.4}$ \mathrm{\mu as}, which we combine with an independent distance measurement from maser parallaxes to determine the mass of Sgr A* to be $4.0_{-0.6}^{+1.1} \times 10^6$ M$_{\odot}$.