Finding good bets in the lottery, and why you shouldn't take them
History and Overview
2025-07-04 v1 Probability
Statistical Finance
Abstract
We give a criterion under which the expected return on a ticket for certain large lotteries is positive. In this circumstance, we use elementary portfolio analysis to show that an optimal investment strategy includes a very small allocation for such tickets.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2507.01993,
title = {Finding good bets in the lottery, and why you shouldn't take them},
author = {Aaron Abrams and Skip Garibaldi},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.01993},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
This is the second of eleven old articles being uploaded to arxiv after publication