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Explicit formula of boundary crossing probabilities for continuous local martingales to constant boundary

Probability 2024-03-04 v2

Abstract

An explicit formula for the probability that a continuous local martingale crosses a one or two-sided random constant boundary in a finite time interval is derived. We obtain that the boundary crossing probability of a continuous local martingale to a constant boundary is equal to the boundary crossing probability of a standard Wiener process to a constant boundary up to a time change of quadratic variation value. This relies on the constancy of the boundary and the Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz theorem for continuous local martingale. The main idea of the proof is the scale invariant property of the time-changed Wiener process and thus the scale invariant property of the first-passage time. As an application, we also consider an inverse first-passage time problem of quadratic variation.

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Cite

@article{arxiv.2312.00287,
  title  = {Explicit formula of boundary crossing probabilities for continuous local martingales to constant boundary},
  author = {Yoann Potiron},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.00287},
  year   = {2024}
}

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47 pages