English

Estimating the growth rate of a birth and death process using data from a small sample

Methodology 2026-02-26 v3 Probability

Abstract

The problem of estimating the growth rate of a birth and death processes based on the coalescence times of a sample of nn individuals has been considered by several authors (\cite{stadler2009incomplete, williams2022life, mitchell2022clonal, Johnson2023}). This problem has applications, for example, to cancer research, when one is interested in determining the growth rate of a clone. Recently, \cite{Johnson2023} proposed an analytical method for estimating the growth rate using the theory of coalescent point processes, which has comparable accuracy to more computationally intensive methods when the sample size nn is large. We use a similar approach to obtain an estimate of the growth rate that is not based on the assumption that nn is large. We demonstrate, through simulations using the R package \texttt{cloneRate}, that our estimator of the growth rate performs well in comparison with previous approaches when nn is small.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2508.16110,
  title  = {Estimating the growth rate of a birth and death process using data from a small sample},
  author = {Carola Sophia Heinzel and Jason Schweinsberg},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.16110},
  year   = {2026}
}