English

Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing 2011-05-11 v1 Probability Computation

Abstract

The standard textbook method for estimating the probability of a biased coin from finite tosses implicitly assumes the sample sizes are large and gives incorrect results for small samples. We describe the exact solution, which is correct for any sample size.

Cite

@article{arxiv.1105.1486,
  title  = {Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample},
  author = {Norman D. Megill and Mladen Pavicic},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1105.1486},
  year   = {2011}
}

Comments

4 pages

R2 v1 2026-06-21T18:04:09.811Z