Ergodic Capacity and Optimal Handover in Satellite Mega-Constellations under Finite Serving Times

Existing analyses of ergodic capacity in satellite mega-constellations often rely on restrictive serving time assumptions or become intractable under realistic handover strategies. This paper develops a framework for characterising the ergodic capacity of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) mega-constellation links under arbitrary handover strategies and serving times. The user--satellite link is modelled as shadowed-Rician fading, and a semi-stochastic satellite channel with persistence is introduced in which visible satellites are drawn from a non-homogeneous binomial point process (NBPP) at each handover and the selected satellite is then propagated using circular orbit dynamics. Under uncoordinated handover decisions, this yields independent serving periods and enables a renewal-theoretic derivation of persistent capacity. This capacity is related to the non-persistent capacity from prior work, and closed-form bounds are provided for efficient evaluation. Optimal handover is then formulated as a non-linear fractional program, yielding an explicit decision rule via a variant of Dinkelbach's algorithm. The results show that a simpler strategy that maximises serving capacity closely approximates the optimum while performing best under SGP4-based orbit prediction and mega-constellation simulation.