English

Elicitation, measuring bias, checking for prior-data conflict and inference with a Dirichlet prior

Methodology 2017-03-10 v1

Abstract

Methods are developed for eliciting a Dirichlet prior based upon bounds on the individual probabilities that hold with virtual certainty. This approach to selecting a prior is applied to a contingency table problem where it is demonstrated how to assess the bias in the prior as well as how to check for prior-data conflict. It is shown that the assessment of a hypothesis via relative belief can easily take into account what it means for the falsity of the hypothesis to correspond to a difference of practical importance and provide evidence in favor of a hypothesis.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.1703.03023,
  title  = {Elicitation, measuring bias, checking for prior-data conflict and inference with a Dirichlet prior},
  author = {Michael Evans and Irwin Guttman and Peiying Li},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1703.03023},
  year   = {2017}
}