Dynamical Systems Models for Market Evolution: A Mechanistic Alternative to Autoregressive Methods
Dynamical Systems
2025-11-26 v3 Applications
Abstract
We present a novel approach to modeling market dynamics using ordinary differential equations that explicitly incorporates product competitiveness and consumer behavior. Our framework treats market segments as interacting populations in a dynamical system analogous to predator-prey models, where competitive advantages drive market share transitions through mechanistic modeling of market flows including new product adoption, refresh cycles, and obsolescence dynamics.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2510.06778,
title = {Dynamical Systems Models for Market Evolution: A Mechanistic Alternative to Autoregressive Methods},
author = {Aparna Komarla and Max Hill},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.06778},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
Presented at the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) Annual Meeting in 2024. See https://submissions.mirasmart.com/InformsAnnual2024/Itinerary/PresentationDetail.aspx?evdid=7897 for contributed paper details