English

Dynamical hypothesis tests and Decision Theory for Gibbs distributions

Statistics Theory 2022-09-16 v2 Dynamical Systems Probability Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider the problem of testing for two Gibbs probabilities μ0\mu_0 and μ1\mu_1 defined for a dynamical system (Ω,T)(\Omega,T). Due to the fact that in general full orbits are not observable or computable, one needs to restrict to subclasses of tests defined by a finite time series h(x0),h(x1)=h(T(x0)),...,h(xn)=h(Tn(x0))h(x_0), h(x_1)=h(T(x_0)),..., h(x_n)=h(T^n(x_0)), x0Ωx_0\in \Omega, n0n\ge 0, where h:ΩRh:\Omega\to\mathbb R denotes a suitable measurable function. We determine in each class the Neyman-Pearson tests, the minimax tests, and the Bayes solutions, and show the asymptotic decay of their risk functions, as nn\to\infty. In the case of Ω\Omega being a symbolic space, for each nNn\in \mathbb{N}, these optimal tests rely on the information of the measures for cylinder sets of size nn.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2112.00670,
  title  = {Dynamical hypothesis tests and Decision Theory for Gibbs distributions},
  author = {M. Denker and A. O. Lopes and S. R. C. Lopes},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2112.00670},
  year   = {2022}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-24T08:00:03.767Z