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Dynamic Spatial Treatment Effects as Continuous Functionals: Theory and Evidence from Healthcare Access

Econometrics 2025-10-28 v3 Theoretical Economics Applications Methodology

Abstract

I develop a continuous functional framework for spatial treatment effects grounded in Navier-Stokes partial differential equations. Rather than discrete treatment parameters, the framework characterizes treatment intensity as continuous functions τ(x,t)\tau(\mathbf{x}, t) over space-time, enabling rigorous analysis of boundary evolution, spatial gradients, and cumulative exposure. Empirical validation using 32,520 U.S. ZIP codes demonstrates exponential spatial decay for healthcare access (κ=0.002837\kappa = 0.002837 per km, R2=0.0129R^2 = 0.0129) with detectable boundaries at 37.1 km. The framework successfully diagnoses when scope conditions hold: positive decay parameters validate diffusion assumptions near hospitals, while negative parameters correctly signal urban confounding effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals 2-13 ×\times stronger distance effects for elderly populations and substantial education gradients. Model selection strongly favors logarithmic decay over exponential (ΔAIC>10,000\Delta \text{AIC} > 10,000), representing a middle ground between exponential and power-law decay. Applications span environmental economics, banking, and healthcare policy. The continuous functional framework provides predictive capability (d(t)=ξtd^*(t) = \xi^* \sqrt{t}), parameter sensitivity (d/ν\partial d^*/\partial \nu), and diagnostic tests unavailable in traditional difference-in-differences approaches.

Cite

@article{arxiv.2510.15324,
  title  = {Dynamic Spatial Treatment Effects as Continuous Functionals: Theory and Evidence from Healthcare Access},
  author = {Tatsuru Kikuchi},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2510.15324},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

65 pages, 10 figures

R2 v1 2026-07-01T06:42:34.201Z