Diameters of random Cayley graphs of finite nilpotent groups

We prove the existence of a limiting distribution for the appropriately rescaled diameters of random undirected Cayley graphs of finite nilpotent groups of bounded rank and nilpotency class, thus extending a result of Shapira and Zuck which dealt with the case of abelian groups. The limiting distribution is defined on a space of unimodular lattices, as in the case of random Cayley graphs of abelian groups. Our result, when specialised to a certain family of unitriangular groups, establishes a very recent conjecture of Hermon and Thomas. We derive this as a consequence of a general inequality, showing that the diameter of a Cayley graph of a nilpotent group is governed by the diameter of its abelianisation.