Thermal energy storage (TES) systems coupled with heat pumps offer significant potential for improving building energy efficiency by shifting electricity demand to off-peak hours. However, conventional operating strategies maintain conservatively low chilled water temperatures throughout the cooling season, a practice that results in suboptimal heat pump performance. This study proposes a physics-based integrated simulation framework to determine the maximum feasible chilled water supply temperature while ensuring cooling stability. The framework integrates four submodels: relative humidity prediction, dynamic cooling load estimation, cooling coil performance prediction, and TES discharge temperature prediction. Validation against measured data from an office building demonstrates reliable accuracy across all sub-models (e.g., CVRMSE of 9.3% for cooling load and R2 of 0.91 for peak-time discharge temperature). The integrated simulation reveals that the proposed framework can increase the daily initial TES charging temperature by an average of 2.55 {\deg}C compared to conventional fixed-temperature operation, enabling the heat pump to operate at a higher coefficient of performance. This study contributes a practical methodology for optimizing TES charging temperatures in building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems while maintaining indoor setpoint temperatures.
@article{arxiv.2601.10976,
title = {Determining optimal thermal energy storage charging temperature for cooling using integrated building and coil modeling},
author = {Ju-Hong Oh and Seon-In Kim and Eui-Jong Kim},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.10976},
year = {2026}
}