Criticality and reduced dynamical resilience in PM2.5 pollution systems
Abstract
Concentration-based metrics underpin air-quality assessment, while dynamical persistence and recovery describe how rapidly high-PM2.5 episodes dissipate and how strongly they retain memory. Here we introduce a finite-memory multiplicative reversion (FMMR) process that links the lognormal concentration backbone of PM2.5 variability with event recurrence, temporal memory, variance amplification and local dynamical resilience. Across station observations and reanalysis data, elevated PM2.5 regimes show a coherent set of critical signatures: stronger memory, rising autocorrelation, broader upper tails, amplified variance, reduced resilience and more clustered exceedance events. Together, these co-occurring signals reveal dynamical criticality in PM2.5 pollution systems, with critical slowing down expressed as a loss of restoring capacity under high-pollution conditions. A gridded comparison across populated and emission-influenced regions further shows that areas with similar PM2.5 burden can differ in recovery capacity, while eastern China has shifted toward higher resilience during recent air-quality improvements and India and West Africa occupy lower-resilience states. By identifying where pollution burden and recovery capacity diverge, these findings establish dynamical persistence and resilience as complementary dimensions of PM2.5 risk and provide a quantitative basis for resilience-oriented air-quality assessment.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2607.14632,
title = {Criticality and reduced dynamical resilience in PM2.5 pollution systems},
author = {Yuan Chen and Yongwen Zhang and Xu Li and Dean Chen and Jingfang Fan and Yosef Ashkenazy and Deliang Chen and Shlomo Havlin},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2607.14632},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
33 pages, 4 figures