English

Critical branching processes with immigration: scaling limits of local extinction sets

Probability 2025-03-28 v1

Abstract

We establish the joint scaling limit of a critical Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson process with immigration (BGWI) and its (counting) local time at zero to the corresponding self-similar continuous-state branching process with immigration (CBI) and its (Markovian) local time at zero for balanced offspring and immigration laws in stable domains of attraction. Using a general framework for invariance principles of local times~\cite{MR4463082}, the problem reduces to the analysis of the structure of excursions from zero and positive levels, together with the weak convergence of the hitting times of points of the BGWI to those of the CBI. A key step in the proof of our main limit theorem is a novel Yaglom limit for the law at time tt of an excursion with lifetime exceeding tt of a scaled infinite-variance critical BGWI. Our main result implies a joint septuple scaling limit of BGWI Z1Z_1, its local time at 00, the random walks X1X_1 and Y1Y_1 associated to the reproduction and immigration mechanisms, respectively, the counting local time at 00 of X1X_1, an additive functional of Z1Z_1 and X1X_1 evaluated at this functional. In the septuple limit, four different scaling sequences are identified and given explicitly in terms of the offspring generating function (modulo asymptotic inversion), the local extinction probabilities of the BGWI and the tails of return times to zero of X1X_1.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2503.20923,
  title  = {Critical branching processes with immigration: scaling limits of local extinction sets},
  author = {Aleksandar Mijatović and Benjamin Povar and Gerónimo Uribe Bravo},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2503.20923},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

30 pages; 1 figure; for a short YouTube video describing the results, see https://youtu.be/M6cBiiJt_90?si=9EDlZOVT00VqK2RT ; for a discussion of the proofs, see YouTube video at https://youtu.be/PCuIkPBApoE?