Counting independent sets in percolated graphs via the Ising model

Given a graph $G$, we form a random subgraph $G_p$ by including each edge of $G$ independently with probability $p$. We provide an asymptotic expansion of the expected number of independent sets in random subgraphs of regular bipartite graphs satisfying certain vertex-isoperimetric properties, extending the work of Kronenberg and Spinka on the percolated hypercube. Combining graph containers with the cluster expansion from statistical physics, we give an expansion of the partition function of the Ising model in certain range of the parameters. Among other applications, we obtain results for even tori of growing side-length. As a tool, we prove a refined container lemma for the Ising model, which mildly improves recent bounds of Jenssen, Malekshahian, and Park.