Convolution of Scale Invariant Continuous Ranked Probability Scores for Testing Experts' Statistical Accuracy
Methodology
2023-04-20 v2
Abstract
Computable solutions for expectations of Continuous Ranked Probability Scores are presented. After deriving a scale invariant version of these scores, a closed form for the convolutions of scores is presented. This closed form enables the testing experts' statistical accuracy. Results are compared with tests using a familiar Chi-square goodness of fit test using a recent data set of 6,761 expert probabilistic forecasts for which true values are known.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2304.07894,
title = {Convolution of Scale Invariant Continuous Ranked Probability Scores for Testing Experts' Statistical Accuracy},
author = {Tina Nane and Roger Cooke},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2304.07894},
year = {2023}
}