Contradictory predictions
Probability
2019-12-03 v1
Abstract
We prove the sharp bound for the probability that two experts who have access to different information, represented by different -fields, will give radically different estimates of the probability of an event. This is relevant when one combines predictions from various experts in a common probability space to obtain an aggregated forecast. Our proof is constructive in the sense that, not only the sharp bounds are proved, but also the optimizer is constructed via an explicit algorithm.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.1912.00126,
title = {Contradictory predictions},
author = {Krzysztof Burdzy and Soumik Pal},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1912.00126},
year = {2019}
}