English

Constriction for sets of probabilities

Statistics Theory 2023-05-09 v2 Statistics Theory

Abstract

Given a set of probability measures P\mathcal{P} representing an agent's knowledge on the elements of a sigma-algebra F\mathcal{F}, we can compute upper and lower bounds for the probability of any event AFA\in\mathcal{F} of interest. A procedure generating a new assessment of beliefs is said to constrict AA if the bounds on the probability of AA after the procedure are contained in those before the procedure. It is well documented that (generalized) Bayes' updating does not allow for constriction, for all AFA\in\mathcal{F}. In this work, we show that constriction can take place with and without evidence being observed, and we characterize these possibilities.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2301.05655,
  title  = {Constriction for sets of probabilities},
  author = {Michele Caprio and Teddy Seidenfeld},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.05655},
  year   = {2023}
}
R2 v1 2026-06-28T08:11:18.628Z