Constriction for sets of probabilities
Statistics Theory
2023-05-09 v2 Statistics Theory
Abstract
Given a set of probability measures representing an agent's knowledge on the elements of a sigma-algebra , we can compute upper and lower bounds for the probability of any event of interest. A procedure generating a new assessment of beliefs is said to constrict if the bounds on the probability of after the procedure are contained in those before the procedure. It is well documented that (generalized) Bayes' updating does not allow for constriction, for all . In this work, we show that constriction can take place with and without evidence being observed, and we characterize these possibilities.
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2301.05655,
title = {Constriction for sets of probabilities},
author = {Michele Caprio and Teddy Seidenfeld},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2301.05655},
year = {2023}
}