Constraining $f(R)$ gravity using future galaxy cluster abundance and weak-lensing mass calibration datasets

We present forecasts for constraints on the Hu \& Sawicki $f(R)$ modified gravity model using realistic mock data representative of future cluster and weak lensing surveys. We create mock thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect selected cluster samples for SPT-3G and CMB-S4 and the corresponding weak gravitational lensing data from next-generation weak-lensing (ngWL) surveys like Euclid and Rubin. We employ a state-of-the-art Bayesian likelihood approach that includes all observational effects and systematic uncertainties to obtain constraints on the $f(R)$ gravity parameter $\log_{10}|f_{R0}|$. In this analysis we vary the cosmological parameters $[\Omega_{\rm m}, \Omega_\nu h^2, h^2, A_s, n_s, \log_{10}|f_{R0}|]$, which allows us to account for possible degeneracies between cosmological parameters and $f(R)$ modified gravity. The analysis accounts for $f(R)$ gravity via its effect on the halo mass function which is enhanced on cluster mass scales compared to the expectations within general relativity (GR). Assuming a fiducial GR model, the upcoming cluster dataset SPT-3G$\times$ngWL is expected to obtain an upper limit of $\log_{10}|f_{R0}| < -5.95$ at $95\,\%$ credibility, which significantly improves upon the current best bounds. The CMB-S4$\times$ngWL dataset is expected to improve this even further to $\log_{10}|f_{R0}| < -6.23$. Furthermore, $f(R)$ gravity models with $\log_{10}|f_{R0}| \geq -6$, which have larger numbers of clusters, would be distinguishable from GR with both datasets. We also report degeneracies between $\log_{10}|f_{R0}|$ and $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}}$ as well as $\sigma_8$ for $\log_{10}|f_{R0}| > -6$ and $\log_{10}|f_{R0}| > -5$ respectively. Our forecasts indicate that future cluster abundance studies of $f(R)$ gravity will enable substantially improved constraints that are competitive with other cosmological probes.