Conditioning on a Volatility Proxy Compresses the Apparent Timescale of Collective Market Correlation
Abstract
We address the attribution problem for apparent slow collective dynamics: is the observed persistence intrinsic, or inherited from a persistent driver? For the leading eigenvalue fraction of S\&P 500 60-day rolling correlation matrices ( stocks, 2004--2023), a VIX-coupled Ornstein--Uhlenbeck model reduces the effective relaxation time from to trading days and improves the fit over bare mean reversion by BIC. On the decomposition sample, an informational residual of alone retains most of that gain (BIC), whereas a mechanical VIX proxy alone does not improve the fit. Autocorrelation-matched placebo fields fail (BIC), disjoint weekly reconstructions still favor the field-coupled model (BIC--), and six anchored chronological holdouts preserve the out-of-sample advantage. Quiet-regime and field-stripped residual autocorrelation controls show the same collapse of persistence. Stronger hidden-variable extensions remain only partially supported. Within the tested stochastic class, conditioning on the observed VIX proxy absorbs most of the apparent slow dynamics.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2603.14072,
title = {Conditioning on a Volatility Proxy Compresses the Apparent Timescale of Collective Market Correlation},
author = {Yuda Bi and Vince D Calhoun},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.14072},
year = {2026}
}