English

Compound decisions and empirical Bayes via Bayesian nonparametrics

Statistics Theory 2026-02-24 v1 Econometrics Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

We study the Gaussian sequence compound decision problem and analyze a Bayesian nonparametric estimator from an empirical Bayes, regret-based perspective. Motivated by sharp results for the classical nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE), we ask whether an analogous guarantee can be obtained using a standard Bayesian nonparametric prior. We show that a Dirichlet-process-based Bayesian procedure achieves near-optimal regret bounds. Our main results are stated in the compound decision framework, where the mean vector is treated as fixed, while we also provide parallel guarantees under a hierarchical model in which the means are drawn from a true unknown prior distribution. The posterior mean Bayes rule is, a fortiori, admissible, whereas we show that the NPMLE plug-in rule is inadmissible.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2602.20115,
  title  = {Compound decisions and empirical Bayes via Bayesian nonparametrics},
  author = {Nikolaos Ignatiadis and Sid Kankanala},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.20115},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

34 pages

R2 v1 2026-07-01T10:48:19.333Z