Choosing alpha post hoc: the danger of multiple standard significance thresholds
Abstract
A fundamental assumption of classical hypothesis testing is that the significance threshold is chosen independently from the data. The validity of confidence intervals likewise relies on choosing beforehand. We point out that the independence of is guaranteed in practice because, in most fields, there exists one standard that everyone uses -- so that is automatically independent of everything. However, there have been recent calls to decrease from to . We note that this may lead to multiple accepted standard thresholds within one scientific field. For example, different journals may require different significance thresholds. As a consequence, some researchers may be tempted to conveniently choose their based on their p-value. We use examples to illustrate that this severely invalidates hypothesis tests, and mention some potential solutions.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2410.02306,
title = {Choosing alpha post hoc: the danger of multiple standard significance thresholds},
author = {Jesse Hemerik and Nick W Koning},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.02306},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
Accepted for publication in Statistical Science