Chat activity is a better predictor than chat sentiment on software developers productivity

Recent works have proposed that software developers' positive emotion has a positive impact on software developers' productivity. In this paper we investigate two data sources: developers chat messages (from Slack and Hipchat) and source code commits of a single co-located Agile team over 200 working days. Our regression analysis shows that the number of chat messages is the best predictor and predicts productivity measured both in the number of commits and lines of code with $R^2$ of 0.33 and 0.27 respectively. We then add sentiment analysis variables until AIC of our model no longer improves and gets $R^2$ values of 0.37 (commits) and 0.30 (lines of code). Thus, analyzing chat sentiment improves productivity prediction over chat activity alone but the difference is not massive. This work supports the idea that emotional state and productivity are linked in software development. We find that three positive sentiment metrics, but surprisingly also one negative sentiment metric is associated with higher productivity.