Characterizing and Predicting Wildfire Evacuation Behavior: A Dual-Stage ML Approach
Abstract
Wildfire evacuation behavior is highly variable and influenced by complex interactions among household resources, preparedness, and situational cues. Using a large-scale MTurk survey of residents in California, Colorado, and Oregon, this study integrates unsupervised and supervised machine learning methods to uncover latent behavioral typologies and predict key evacuation outcomes. Multiple Correspondence Analysis, K-Modes clustering, and Latent Class Analysis reveal consistent subgroups differentiated by vehicle access, disaster planning, technological resources, pet ownership, and residential stability. Complementary supervised models show that transportation mode can be predicted with high reliability from household characteristics, whereas evacuation timing remains difficult to classify due to its dependence on dynamic, real-time fire conditions. These findings advance data-driven understanding of wildfire evacuation behavior and demonstrate how machine learning can support targeted preparedness strategies, resource allocation, and equitable emergency planning.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2603.02223,
title = {Characterizing and Predicting Wildfire Evacuation Behavior: A Dual-Stage ML Approach},
author = {Sazzad Bin Bashar Polock and Anandi Dutta and Subasish Das},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.02223},
year = {2026}
}
Comments
This is the author's preprint version of a paper accepted for presentation at SoutheastConn 2026. The final published version will appear in the official conference proceedings. Conference site: https://ieeesoutheastcon.org/