English

ChaosNexus: A Foundation Model for ODE-based Chaotic System Forecasting with Hierarchical Multi-scale Awareness

Machine Learning 2026-02-03 v2 Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Foundation models have shown great promise in achieving zero-shot or few-shot forecasting for ODE-based chaotic systems via large-scale pretraining. However, existing architectures often fail to capture the multi-scale temporal structures and distinct spectral characteristics of chaotic dynamics. To address this, we introduce ChaosNexus, a foundation model for chaotic system forecasting underpinned by the proposed ScaleFormer architecture. By processing temporal contexts across hierarchically varying patch sizes, ChaosNexus effectively captures long-range dependencies and preserves high-frequency fluctuations. To address heterogeneity across distinct systems, we integrate Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) layers into each ScaleFormer block and explicitly condition the final forecasts on a learned frequency fingerprint, providing the model with a global spectral view of the system. Extensive evaluations on over 9,000 synthetic systems demonstrate that ChaosNexus achieves superior fidelity in long-term attractor statistics while maintaining competitive point-wise accuracy. Furthermore, in real-world applications, it achieves a remarkable zero-shot mean error below 1{\deg}C for 5-day station-based weather forecasting. Codes are available at https://github.com/TomXaxaxa/ChaosNexus.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2509.21802,
  title  = {ChaosNexus: A Foundation Model for ODE-based Chaotic System Forecasting with Hierarchical Multi-scale Awareness},
  author = {Chang Liu and Bohao Zhao and Jingtao Ding and Yong Li},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.21802},
  year   = {2026}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T05:57:42.573Z