Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defense
Abstract
Mitigation of the threat from airbursting asteroids requires an understanding of the potential risk they pose for the ground. How asteroids release their kinetic energy in the atmosphere is not well understood due to the rarity of significant impacts. Ordinary chondrites, in particular L chondrites, represent a frequent type of Earth-impacting asteroids. Here, we present the first comprehensive, space-to-lab characterization of an L chondrite impact. Small asteroid 2023 CX1 was detected in space and predicted to impact over Normandy, France, on 13 February 2023. Observations from multiple independent sensors and reduction techniques revealed an unusual but potentially high-risk fragmentation behavior. The nearly spherical 650 160 kg (72 6 cm diameter) asteroid catastrophically fragmented around 28 km altitude, releasing 98% of its total energy in a concentrated region of the atmosphere. The resulting shockwave was spherical, not cylindrical, and released more energy closer to the ground. This type of fragmentation increases the risk of significant damage at ground level. These results warrant consideration for a planetary defense strategy for cases where a >3-4 MPa dynamic pressure is expected, including planning for evacuation of areas beneath anticipated disruption locations.
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@article{arxiv.2509.12362,
title = {Catastrophic disruption of asteroid 2023 CX1 and implications for planetary defense},
author = {Auriane Egal and Denis Vida and François Colas and Brigitte Zanda and Sylvain Bouley and Asma Steinhausser and Pierre Vernazza and Ludovic Ferrière and Jérôme Gattacceca and Mirel Birlan and Jérémie Vaubaillon and Karl Antier and Simon Anghel and Josselin Desmars and Kévin Baillié and Lucie Maquet and Sébastien Bouquillon and Adrien Malgoyre and Simon Jeanne and Jiři Borovička and Pavel Spurný and Hadrien A. R. Devillepoix and Marco Micheli and Davide Farnocchia and Shantanu Naidu and Peter Brown and Paul Wiegert and Krisztián Sárneczky and András Pál and Nick Moskovitz and Theodore Kareta and Toni Santana-Ros and Alexis Le Pichon and Gilles Mazet-Roux and Julien Vergoz and Luke McFadden and Jelle Assink and Läslo Evers and Daniela Krietsch and Henner Busemann and Colin Maden and Lisa Maria Eckart and Jean-Alix Barrat and Pavel Povinec and Ivan Sykora and Ivan Kontul' and Oscar Marchhart and Martin Martschini and Silke Merchel and Alexander Wieser and Matthieu Gounelle and Sylvain Pont and Pierre Sans-Jofre and Sebastiaan de Vet and Ioannis Baziotis and Miroslav Brož and Michaël Marsset and Jérôme Vergne and Josef Hanuš and Maxime Devogèle and Luca Conversi and Francisco Ocaña and Luca Buzzi and Dan Alin Nedelcu and Adrian Sonka and Florent Losse and Philippe Dupouy and Korado Korlević and Dieter Husar and Jost Jahn and Damir Šegon and Mark McIntyre and Ralf Neubert and Pierre Beck and Patrick Shober and Anthony Lagain and Josep Maria Trigo-Rodriguez and Enrique Herrero and Jim Rowe and Andrew R. D. Smedley and Ashley King and Salma Sylla and Daniele Gardiol and Dario Barghini and Hervé Lamy and Emmanuel Jehin and Detlef Koschny and Bjorn Poppe and Andrés Jordán and Rene A. Mendez and Katherine Vieira and Hebe Cremades and Hasnaa Chennaoui Aoudjehane and Zouhair Benkhaldoun and Olivier Hernandez and Darrel Robertson and Peter Jenniskens},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.12362},
year = {2025}
}
Comments
This preprint has not undergone peer review (when applicable) or any post-submission improvements or corrections. The Version of Record of this article is published in \textit{Nature Astronomy}, and is available online at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-025-02659-8