Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments
Computation
2010-11-23 v2
Abstract
Most surrogate models for computer experiments are interpolators, and the most common interpolator is a Gaussian process (GP) that deliberately omits a small-scale (measurement) error term called the nugget. The explanation is that computer experiments are, by definition, "deterministic", and so there is no measurement error. We think this is too narrow a focus for a computer experiment and a statistically inefficient way to model them. We show that estimating a (non-zero) nugget can lead to surrogate models with better statistical properties, such as predictive accuracy and coverage, in a variety of common situations.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1007.4580,
title = {Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments},
author = {Robert B. Gramacy and Herbert K. H. Lee},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1007.4580},
year = {2010}
}
Comments
17 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables; revised