English

Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments

Computation 2010-11-23 v2

Abstract

Most surrogate models for computer experiments are interpolators, and the most common interpolator is a Gaussian process (GP) that deliberately omits a small-scale (measurement) error term called the nugget. The explanation is that computer experiments are, by definition, "deterministic", and so there is no measurement error. We think this is too narrow a focus for a computer experiment and a statistically inefficient way to model them. We show that estimating a (non-zero) nugget can lead to surrogate models with better statistical properties, such as predictive accuracy and coverage, in a variety of common situations.

Cite

@article{arxiv.1007.4580,
  title  = {Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments},
  author = {Robert B. Gramacy and Herbert K. H. Lee},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1007.4580},
  year   = {2010}
}

Comments

17 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables; revised

R2 v1 2026-06-21T15:53:18.306Z